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Product details
File Size: 436 KB
Print Length: 254 pages
Publisher: Yale University Press (December 6, 2016)
Publication Date: December 6, 2016
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B01MQMKG2W
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The book starts out with an anecdote about climate change catastrophe. Two researchers crossing the Canadian far north fall through dangerously thin ice and are killed. The moral of the story – global warming is destroying the ice. There are a couple of factoids presented:The Eskimos in northern Greenland are experiencing "rotting ice." 200 to 300 billion tons of ice are being lost each year as meltwater.The last time atmospheric CO2 was this high, the global average sea level was 70 feet higher.These "expert" facts are presented without context. The meltwater figure comes out to 42 to 63 mi.³ per year, a figure one can wrap his brain around. I am sure that it is hard to measure meltwater within an ice sheet in the Arctic. This figure has to be some sort of a SWAG, and one can be confident that it is on the high side. Still, the Arctic is a vast place. It would amount to about 1/4 of an inch per year of melt. As irrationality experts Dan Ariely and Daniel Kahanman would testify, this is very much an area in which how you ask the question controls your perception of the answer.With regard to atmospheric carbon dioxide, it has been decreasing quite consistently since the age of the dinosaurs. Back then animals seem to have had the upper hand, generating more carbon dioxide than plants could fix. Plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. As plants have become increasingly efficient, the available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has shrunk between 5 and 10 times. In the industrial era machines have joined animals in exploiting biomass for energy, partially reversing the long-term trend toward less carbon dioxide in the environment.To say that ocean levels were 70 feet higher is a bit of a stretch. There are no benchmarks – the continents were configured differently back then. Who knows? Sweet provides no footnotes to guide us. What he does not mention, because it does not fit his argument, is that much, much more recently, during the last ice age, when the continents were in their present form and CO2 was exactly what it was before the industrial age, oceans were 400 feet lower due to water locked in icecaps.A figure never cited is temperatures of those bygone geological eras of massive amounts of CO2. They were perhaps a couple of degrees higher than the present. The dinosaurs and our mammalian ancestors seem to have survived quite nicely. And we note that CO2 declined rather steadily, in and out of ice ages. There is not much historical correlation between temperature and CO2.Sweet writes "The total collapse of Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf, an area the size of France, or the complete hiving off of Greenland’s ice cover— these are developments, were they to occur abruptly, that could render virtually every major coastal city of the world uninhabitable from one decade to the next." Put this up there with asteroid collisions and nuclear wars. True – it could devastate life on earth. Is it happening? The week I write this review the news is that the Antarctic ice sheet, though it continually changes, appears to be relatively the same as it was when Shackleton and Scott first explored it a century ago. This is an area in which experts disagree, and humility is certainly in order. Moral certainty, as we statisticians say, is a difficult thing.Sweet invokes the wisdom of crowds: "This is why hundreds of thousands took to the streets of New York City in September 2014, when the UN secretary-general convened a one-day summit to galvanize support for a strong international climate agreement. The specific purpose of the summit had been to gather world leaders, get them to focus on the climate problem, and inspire them to stronger collective action. But the public demonstration that was organized independently of the United Nations ended up outclassing the official event." Sweet and I, and you too, dear reader know that those tens of thousands gathered in New York were not experts on climate change. Showing up at such a demonstration is a social phenomenon, one which now goes by the name of "virtue signaling." Its measurement is of sociological interest, but not of any scientific interest.Sweet writes in the conclusion to the preface "Like journalists generally, I try to take no sides." That's up there with "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." No -- he is an advocate. His last sentence belies the argument: "Whether catastrophic climate change is headed off will depend greatly on what happens in diplomatic negotiations. If those negotiations fail, it will be only a matter of time until states are at each other’s throats, as the circumstances we have depended on crumble all around."Sweet assumes that global warming is real, that it will be bad, and that it is caused by rising levels CO2. Aside from the horror of rising oceans, he does not present the case for any of these propositions, and never mentions serious scientists who question all three.This would be an exceptionally long review if I made it all one piece. Therefore I am posting this review of the preface as the book review itself, and chapter reviews as comments.I should add a comment on my own bona fides. I am a retired computer programmer, entrepreneur and computer book author. In retirement I have studied statistics and have read sufficiently extensively to be a top 500 Amazon reviewer. I have lectured at the university level on ecology and read extensively on climate change. I provide links to the books I have read and reviewed throughout this review and my comments. Those I have reviewed include: Whole Earth Discipline by environmentalist Stewart Brand,, A Vast Machine by Paul Edwards,, Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity by Stephen King, The Neglected Sun – Why the Sun Precludes Climate Catastrophe by Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Luening, Climate Change Reconsidered and Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years by S. Fred Singer, and Global Warming Gridlock by David Victor. These are important names in the field; Sweet names only Victor. I add Roger Pielke, who is much in the news now as he speaks out about how the IPCC-inspired establishment, including media executives, have conspired to shut him up. Google him.In summary, I conclude that this is a rather shrill book of advocacy. Balanced discussion is hard to find in the area of climate change, and it is only occasionally found here. Sweet does get it right on a few subjects, such as nuclear and the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Damage (REDD), in which he notes, as I do, that national level programs, encouraged but not forced by international pressure, have been effective. I was prompted to do a youtube video. Google "global warming" youtube "graham seibert"
This is a thoughtful and detailed book on a pressing international problem, perhaps the pressing international problem. Sweet has done more than enough homework to be an excellent guide through the recent history of the accords and discords of recent climate change talks and initiatives. The book is very well written and accessible, but far from dumbed down.
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